angry_in_t_o ([info]angry_in_t_o) wrote,

A post about the importance of picking your fights…

From the Globe and Mail today, in a story about the push to make Canada's three northern territories into provinces:

"There are other countries. I'm not going to name countries. I'm just telling the world, the Arctic is Canadian territory, and we will exercise our sovereignty."

The country he wouldn't name is the US, which doesn't acknowledge Canadian sovereignty over the Arctic. Specifically, the US does not recognize all those channels between the islands of the Arctic archipelago as internal waters, which is what Canada insists they are. The distinction means that the US maintains that surface or subsurface ships can navigate those channels as if they were traversing the open Atlantic. Canada insists on being asked for permission before those ships enter those waters.

So who's right?



For issues like these, the basic rule is whoever is bigger wins. It might seem childish to sophisticated Euro-philes, but territorial integrity is a function of brute force.

It's related to a concept called a "monopoly of violence". In effect, the guy with the biggest stick is in charge. To be more subtle, the most basic definition of a nation is a contiguous geographical region in which a single organization enjoys a monopoly of violence. That organization is known as…wait for it…"the government".

What happens is that to form a stable society, citizens hand over the right to pursue alleged injury to a central authority. Instead of getting a baseball bat and going after the guy who side-swiped the car, a citizen goes to the police. The police, as agents of the government, have the recognized authority to employ violence in the pursuit of their goals, and are the only ones so recognized. Anyone else using violence is a criminal. For the police, "violence" can mean writing a ticket, arresting a perpetrator, or actual gun play. The rest of the citizenry stands aside, including the wronged parties.

The courts, too, have the means to enforce their judgments. Resisting the order of a court will result in fine and imprisonment. Note that we take that as a given – it does not even come to mind that we should take a shot at the bailiff. As a basic principle of civics, the notion of monopoly of violence exists at almost the subconscious level.

Even in the US, citizens have a right to "bear arms" only, not the right to take shots at the paper boy for throwing the morning paper onto the roof for the fifth day running.

In many areas of the world, there is no such monopoly. Justice is extracted by means of vendetta law, or by competing private armies in the employ of local warlords. In these areas, the concept of "nation" dependent on the monopoly of violence criterion is so compact geographically (a few city blocks for a local gang, for example) as to be meaningless.

Some countries exist in a nether region of true nationhood. Though we recognize the governments of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, it is well known that inside the recognized borders of both nations are areas where the heavily-armed locals do not respect the orders of the government, and who violently resist agents of the government. But since these areas are inhabited by insular people little interested in exporting their beliefs, these seditious behaviours are tolerated by the central government (as if it has a choice), and politely ignored by the rest of the world.

Back to Canada's arctic. Are those channel areas sovereign Canadian waters? In the old days, the limit of sovereign control of coastal waters was actually 3 nautical miles – the distance you could effectively employ coastal cannon to attack offending ships. Ships could not employ such large artillery, so the monopoly of violence in that strip of ocean belonged entirely to the coastal cannon. That's the big-stick theory in action. That limit became 12 nautical miles, then 200 nautical miles. The 200 mile limit was first promulgated by Harry Truman in 1945 to encompass the continental shelf and all the undersea resources.

Anyone here think the US could not enforce such a limit?

Now treaties have formalized the situation. Within 12 nautical miles, a nation has the absolute right to control access and navigation. Within 24 nautical miles, a nation can impose smuggling and immigration laws. Within 200 nautical miles, a nation enjoys an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) only.

In the case of the Arctic, a vessel can thread a path that avoids the 12 nautical mile exclusion zone extending from the islands of the archipelago. For Canada to impose its will on the area, it will need to be more proactive. Surveillance with aircraft, surface craft, and submarines. Mine fields to close off passages that are not patrolled. Forceful interdiction of foreign vessels.

No one is disputing Canada's economic control of the waters in the archipelago – the 200 EEZ is in effect. In order to stop ships from using these waters unless they ask for permission, however, Canada will have to put some pretty big "cannon" in place. But that costs money, is politically unpopular, and would put us on a collision course with the US, which is not a good idea at the best of times, and these are not the best of times (cross-border security, mad cow disease, soft wood lumber).

So I'm not sure what Prime Minister Paul Martin means when he says he will "exercise our sovereignty". Maybe he thinks he can mention it to President Bush when he visits next week. Ask him nice-like to please don't send any big ships or nasty submarines. Then the Prime Minister will get all steely-eyed and growl "Or else!"

Hopefully the President won't be munching on a pretzel when that happens – I'd hate for him to risk choking again when he bursts out in laughter.


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[info]dogmaticus

November 23 2004, 23:29:03 UTC 7 years ago

Reading between the lines here I believe the big issue is warships, and a liberal country not wanting to even think about them, let alone lay eyes on one the in "their" waters. It's a non-issue that stinks of a political play. I seriously doubt that the US would ever give in to it, and on the same hand neither would Canada. When you look at Canada as one of the US's closest allies literally & figuratively, all that statement brings to mind is a political soundbite. But hey what do I know!

[info]angry_in_t_o

November 24 2004, 14:01:07 UTC 7 years ago

Definitely just words for domestic consumption. But read my response to princesstoots - I ponder the way in which Canada could make a play at this.

[info]princesstoots

November 23 2004, 23:29:56 UTC 7 years ago

Ok, didn't read the whole (it's rather late in the afternoon), but two things...

1st - What's the difference between territories and provinces?

2nd - Is this the hill Canada wants to die on?

[info]angry_in_t_o

November 24 2004, 14:25:42 UTC 7 years ago

[First of two responses]

What's the difference between territories and provinces?

In a federal system (Canada, US, Switzerland), the federal government is essentially landless. The land is held by individual states (provinces, cantons) that manage natural resources, transportation, the incorporation of towns and cities, parks, etc, etc, etc (for complete details, check with your local constitution). The federal government deals with meta-issues like delivering the mail and national defense. It may buy or lease land from states (provinces, cantons) in order to meet these responsibilities, but in effect all the dirt belongs to the states (provinces, cantons).

Except for territories. In the US and Canada, there are territorial possessions. The US has some Pacific islands (Guam) and other scattered bits, and Canada has the far north (subdivided into three territories - the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut). A territory is directly managed by the federal government. There is no state government - often territorial officials are appointed (though in practice the federal government will run local elections). Since there is no state-level government, there is no one to counteract the will of the federal government when it makes decisions. On the other hand, you don't have to pay state-level taxes, either.

If the federal government is lucky, there is oil or diamonds or some other goodies in the territory - then it belongs to the federal government instead of some meddling state government.

But eventually, people living in a territory will want state or provincial status. That happens when the population grows to enough of a level that they can organize and manage their own state-level responsibilities.

The pressure against attaining statehood or provincial status is the same on both sides of the border - the reluctance of other states/provinces.

In the US, the House of Representatives is limited by statute to 435 members. When Alaska and Hawaii joined the Union, the limited was temporarily raised to 437, until the next census. Then reapportionment occured, and the standard 435 members were redistributed. Of course, this meant the the larger states like California and New York would probably loose a member or two, so they would be the least willing to recognize new states.

In the case of Alaska and Hawaii, the populations were small and the shift in the House of Representatives minor. If Canada were to fall apart, and Ontario decided to go with the US, that would be a new state of a population of 12 million. That's about the size of Ohio, which has a whopping 18 Representatives, and an Electoral College weight that was so significant in November. California, New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio would all stand to lose representatives in order to make room for the new state of Ontario. It would be chaos - in fact, Ontario would almost certainly be a territory for at least some time until the process could be more gently implemented.

In Canada, the sticking point to creating new provinces would be Quebec. This French-dominated province with aspirations to nationhood currently makes claims to equal weight to English Canada in Confederation, despite the fact that, population-wise, English Canada outnumbers French Canadians by bit more than 3 to 1. The French number less than a quarter of the population, and dominate in only one province out of ten. Their tenuous claim to 50% of the political clout would be all the more shaky if we went from 10 provinces to 13 by adding 3 more English-speaking provinces.

Long response, I know, but this is a topic that touches on so many fascinating issues.

[info]angry_in_t_o

November 24 2004, 14:48:19 UTC 7 years ago

[Second of two responses]

2nd - Is this the hill Canada wants to die on?

No one has to die. But there is a way Canada could make a play on this. The trick is to irritate the Americans short of making them mad.

Imagine that there are three entrances to the archipelago used by American submarines. Canada blocks two of them (anti-sub nets, active sonar pinging, things like that). Leave one entrance open though, and allow the US to use it unmolested. Very irritating, but not enough to make the US really mad.

Canada makes a statement about protecting the continent from terrorist infiltration from the North (absurd images of jihadis in mukluks). It builds a couple of anti-shipping missile sites. No missiles, though - don't want any accidents. Then when an American surface ship steams by, you paint it with a fire control radar. Canadian soldiers stand on shore and wave and smile, and promise to turn off the radar just as soon as we can. Very irritating to the US captain on the bridge being beeped at by crazed computers reporting the active radar signals.

Then Canada and the US sit down and hammer out some sort of accord (not even a formal treaty). Fill it with statements that give both sides the political cover they need.

Canada and the United States recognize the claim of Canada to the management of the waterways of the Artic.

Avoids the use of the word "internal", as in "internal waterway". The statement can be read to mean that Canada has sovereignty, or simply that the countries recognize that there is a claim, which there is, without validating that claim.

Canada and the United States will continue to cooperate on joint defense of the continent from threats from the north.

Nothing new here.

The United States will consult Canada on significant movement of military forces through the area.

"Consult" doesn’t mean much – Canada can interpret it to mean permission, the US can interpret it to not mean permission. "Significant" can be an out for the US to move subs without telling anyone – it's just one little submarine, after all.

Canada and the United States commit to sharing all intelligence gathered by their respective forces.

This is the one bit with teeth. Canada would agree to stop making noises about sovereignty and the US agrees to stop calling the channels international waters. Both agree not to agree with the other's point of view. But both also agree that if one side or the other spot something odd (a ship that shouldn't be there, debris, oil slick, whatever), that they share it with the other side.

The irritants are removed, the US continues to have free passage, Canada stops claiming sovereignty, the US stops denying sovereignty, and the North is defended.

Canada doesn't need a stick big enough to club the US on the head. We couldn't afford such a stick anyway. But we could fashion a stick large enough to whack the US on the shins a few times to get their attention, and maybe a little respect. As long as Canada doesn't try to make the US do anything we all know it is not willing to do, there is still a lot of room for negotiation, diplomacy, and finesse.
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